ICV topic of the year 2023: Cost and price increases, inflation and stagflation

What the ICV does for you

In economically challenging times, the helmsman and helmswoman in the company is more in demand than ever. In view of cost and price increases, inflation and stagflation, controllers face new, complex tasks and challenges. The ICV therefore provides information, tips, hints, success stories and lessons learned on this topic here.

The background

As late as December 2022, Ifo President Clemens Fuest was optimistic in his annual outlook for 2023 that no serious economic downturn was to be expected despite the energy crisis. Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel agreed with this assessment, predicting a gradual recovery for the second half of 2023 after a contraction in economic output at the beginning of the year*. The economists at the IfW Kiel Institute for Economic Performance even believe that Germany will grow slightly in 2023**. Nevertheless, there is no reason to sound the all-clear, because even if the risk of recession has been averted according to the experts, another threat is taking its place: the combination of a stagnating economy and rising prices could lead to stagflation.

What is stagflation? Instead of the classic course of upswing (prices rise) - boom (prices rise) - downturn (low inflation) - crisis (low inflation), stagflation brings economic stagnation with simultaneous inflation. Triggers are shocks such as the corona pandemic or the increase in energy prices after the Russian war of aggression in Ukraine. A comparable historical event was the oil crisis of the 1970s. As a result, growth collapsed and stagnated at a low level, while inflation rose rapidly and remained high, as did unemployment, social spending and national debt.

The problem with stagflation is that there is no adequate antidote. Measures would have to strengthen growth and curb inflation at the same time - an offer that politicians and central banks do not have up their sleeves. If, as is currently the case, there is a lack of material, skilled workers and affordable energy, state-initiated demand programs come to nothing. If the state supports demand, this drives up inflation. If the central bank raises interest rates, this dampens demand and thus prices, while also weakening growth. An economic dilemma that also poses enormous challenges for controlling.

*Source: https://www.bundesbank.de/de/aufgaben/themen/bundesbank-projektionen-trotz-energiekrise-kein-schwerer-wirtschaftseinbruch-901984
**Source: https://www.ifw-kiel.de/de/publikationen/kieler-konjunkturberichte/2022/deutsche-wirtschaft-im-winter-2022-im-kriechgang-durch-die-energiekrise-17876/

Events on the topic of the year

Topic cluster at the Congress of Controllers on May 2023

A topic cluster on the afternoon of the first day of the 47th Congress of Controllers is dedicated to the ICV topic of the year. The ICV invites you to Munich on May 15 and 16, 2023. The equally established and renowned specialist event is considered a highlight for the European controlling community, both from a technical point of view and with regard to the supporting program and the unique opportunities to expand and maintain your network in many directions, since colleagues from controlling and corporate management from all sectors, company sizes and many countries in Europe are on site.

Topic Cluster A: Cost and price management in the stagflation environment

Moderation: Matthias von Daacke
Head of Global Controlling
Blanco GmbH + Co KG
and Vice-Chairman
ICV International Association of Controllers

Lecture in German

  • The focus of controlling in times of inflation
  • Aligning methods and tools to inflation requirements
  • Revenue management and pricing - support sales in securing revenue

Dr. Günther Lubos
Member of the Executive Board
Dr. Wieselhuber & Partner GmbH

3.20 p.m. Coffee break & networking

  • Current economic and legal requirements for corporate planning and their implications
  • The core ideas of modern corporate planning
  • Modern budgeting and principles of proper planning
  • Ways and challenges of practical implementation

Prof. Dr. Werner Gleißner
FutureValue Group AG

4.30 p.m. Coffee break & networking

Lecture in German

  • Unpredictable disruptions in the supply chain require a rethink in supply chain management
  • Preventive instead of reactive supplier management to minimize financial risks
  • Monitoring and controlling with the help of transparent and digitized processes

Dr.-Ing. Sylvia Trage
MHP - A Porsche Company